Erika Rodriguez Salamanca
Program: Specialization in Orthopedics and Traumatology, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, Universidad de Santander, Colombia
Thesis title: Predictors of Mortality in Patients Over 60 Years Old Undergoing Total Hip Arthroplasty for Proximal Femur Fracture
Graduation year: 2026
Author: Erika Rodriguez Salamanca
Co-supervisors: José Hernán Forero Corzo and Adriana Angarita Fonseca
Abstract
Hip fracture in older adults is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality, and death after arthroplasty may persist in the short and long term. This study aimed to identify predictors of mortality in patients aged ≥60 years undergoing total hip arthroplasty for proximal femur fracture at a university hospital in Bucaramanga, Colombia. A retrospective cohort study was conducted, including patients operated between 2015 and 2019. Demographic, clinical, and perioperative variables were extracted from electronic medical records and grouped as preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors. The primary outcome was cumulative mortality at the end of follow-up, determined through verification of vital status in the official national database of the Colombian National Civil Registry, using February 24, 2026, as the predefined cutoff date; in-hospital mortality was also recorded as a secondary descriptive outcome. The cohort was described overall and stratified by vital status at follow-up. As an exploratory step, univariable logistic regression models were estimated, followed by a multivariable model to estimate individual risk of cumulative mortality, with predictor selection based on clinical plausibility and baseline availability. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (AUC) and calibration, with internal validation using bootstrap resampling. The analytic cohort included 104 patients, of whom 55 had died by the end of follow-up. These findings provide local evidence to support risk stratification and perioperative optimization, with potential utility for strengthening orthogeriatric care pathways and institutional clinical auditing.
Key Words: Predictors, Fracture, Aging, Mortality